Understanding geopolitical actions that drive client and network risk
Banks now operate in a world where political and economic actions by states can instantly reshape client exposures, networks, and flows. The Geo-Risk Horizon identifies and classifies these actions — from current realities to emerging possibilities — showing how they translate into operational, financial, and compliance challenges for banks and their clients.
By mapping each action to its horizon of likelihood and the CNRM levers that support mitigation, banks can anticipate where risk will surface, how it may spread through client networks, and what capability is required to respond.
Geopolitical Risk Actions by Horizon
Each action represents a geopolitical development that could compel banks and clients to adapt — organised from current realities to emerging possibilities.
Connecting Geopolitical Risk to CNRM, NSR, and ERR
Geopolitical events become bank exposures when they propagate through client networks.
Managing that propagation requires three connected capabilities - CNRM, NSR & ERR.
How Soon and How Prepared?
The risk horizon is collapsing faster than banks can build capability.
The choice is not whether these risks will appear, but whether the bank will be ready when they do.
